Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it, says MktwHulbert (OPINION)
Is the great coronavirus bear market of 2020 now history? Many exuberant bulls would have you believe that it is, since the S&P 500 SPX, +1.44% is now more than 20% higher than its mid-March low. That satisfies the semi-official definition of a bull market.
While the market’s rally since its March 23 low has been explosive, it’s not unprecedented. Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.22% was created in the late 1800s, there have been 38 other occasions where it rallied just as much in just as short a period — and all of them occurred during the Great Depression.
More bearishness needed Sentiment also points to a lower low for the U.S. market. That’s because the usual pattern is for the final bear-market bottom to be accompanied by thoroughgoing pessimism and despair. That’s not what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. In fact, just the opposite is evident — eagerness to declare that the worst is now behind us.
Volatility offers clues A similar conclusion is reached when we focus on the CBOE’s Volatility Index, or VIX VIX, -3.87% . An analysis of all bear markets since 1990 shows that the VIX almost always hits its high well before the bear market registers its final low. The only two exceptions came after the 9-11 terrorist attacks and at the end of the two-month bear market in 1998 that accompanied the bankruptcy of Long Term Capital Management.
Read: Founder of world’s largest hedge fund doubles down on ‘cash is trash’ argument, warning of debt-fueled inflationIn truth, there’s no universal definition of a “waterfall decline.” The authors of the Ned Davis study, Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist, and Thanh Nguyen, Senior Quantitative Analyst, defined it as “persistent selling over multiple weeks, no more than two up days in a row, a surge in volume, and a collapse in investor confidence.
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