Recession is imminent, the market believes — but Jeremy Siegel, Ed Yardeni, Tom Lee and other top analysts still see gains ahead for stocks. Here's why, and what they're saying.
"My projection is a 15% increase, and believe it or not... I think the first half might be the increase that surprises people, because the market is very forward-looking," he said.
"The market is forward looking. You can't wait until the sky is blue before you say 'oh yeah those profits are now going to be up I'll buy.' The prices are going to be up way before the profits respond to that recession. So even if you have a recession, I think it's discounted," Siegel added. "I think we made a low on October 12 in the market. I think that was the end of the bear market. And I think we're back in a bull market.
He predicted a price target of 4,300 for the S&P 500 in the first half of 2023 to mark a 10% rise in stocks from current levels, driven by Fed pausing rate hikes, and a recession ultimately being dodged. "What we're saying is, against the backdrop of such a concentrated consensus, there's simply a lack of downside catalysts, a lack of downside surprises, and therefore,
," Kettner said in a Bloomberg interview, talking about Wall Street's current pessimistic consensus on stocks. "It's not like I'm saying growth is going to go through the roof and it's going to be rock and roll. The only thing I'm going to say is well, it's not going to be a rocky horror show. Against the backdrop of such extreme pessimism, you don't need an awful lot of positive surprises to really make risk assets get going a little bit," he added.
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