The S&P 500 could triple to 14,000 by 2034 as secular bull market cycle takes hold
Since then, there have only been two secular bull markets, with one occurring during the 1950s and 1960s, and another occurring during the 1980s and 1990s. Both generated total returns of about 2,300%.
"If the current cycle generates a similar rally of +2000%, the S&P could move toward 14,000 by 2034 which is when we expect the current 16 to 18 year secular bull cycle to peak," Sluymer said. Those expansionary periods were countered with periods of contraction, during which stocks often move sideways over a period of nearly two decades. The last two contraction periods for the market occurred from the mid 1960s until the early 1980s and from the late 1990s to about 2014.
Between now and 2034, long-term oriented investors should lean bullish and view sell-offs in the stock market as opportunities to increase exposure to secular and cyclical growth stocks, including industrials, according to Sluymer. "Bottom line: We expect volatility to increase through earnings season into late Q3 when seasonal weakness often develops. We recommend longer-term investors stay the course and remain optimistic about the evolving market cycle that bottomed in Q4," he said.
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