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This Over/Under hit the board at 36.5 points on Sunday and with Jackson’s status looking bleaker by the day , this number has slowly trimmed to as low as 35 points at some sportsbooks.
The current versions of these rivals are both built on the backs of their defense. Pittsburgh’s stop unit stumbled a bit after losing star LB T.J. Watt early in the year, but since his return, this Steelers defense has jumped from 26th in EPA allowed per play to No. 9 since Week 10. Both stop units have been especially stingy against the running game, ranked out No. 4 and No. 6 in Run Defense DVOA at, and you have two offenses anchored in the ground game with Baltimore rushing on almost 51% of snaps and Pittsburgh going to the ground more than 43% of the time. Those playbooks also run a slower pace that picks up shorter gains and keeps the clock moving.
With the current Week 17 total as low as 35 points, it should be noted there have been only three other games since 2015 with a closing total of 35 points or less: two have occurred this season and the other was a late-season matchup between these two teams in 2019 that went Over with a final score of 28-10.
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