With time dwindling before the December 31 expiration of their current carriage agreement, Lionsgate and Comcast remain in discussions about the continued distribution of Starz. The talks are being…
Benjamin Swinburne, a veteran media analyst at Morgan Stanley, does not foresee angst for Comcast viewers in what he considers the most likely scenario, a renewal without any lapse in carriage. In a new research note to clients on Wednesday, though, Swinburne predicts a renewal will hurt near-term profits at Starz as the premium network makes the transition from traditional carriage to à la carte distribution.
“We acknowledge there is a variety of outcomes, and visibility is low,” Swinburne wrote of the discussions. “Our base case now assumes Comcast transitions Starz to an à la carte distribution deal over a three-year period, with fixed bridge payments being slowly replaced by a wholesale distribution rate paid out to Starz.”
À la carte streaming and on-demand channels generally produce more revenue per user than fully linear carriage. Lionsgate CEO Jon Feltheimer addressed the changing operating environment on the company’s last quarterly conference call with analysts in November. “This year for the first time more than half of Starz’s revenue comes from à la carte customers as we continue to achieve success with our traditional MVPD partners and new digital distributors alike,” he said.
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