China's vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific
1 / 15FILE PHOTO - Warships and fighter jets of the Chinese PLAN take part in a military display in the South China SeaFILE PHOTO - Warships and fighter jets of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy take part in a military display in the South China Sea April 12, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer/File PhotoBy David Lague and Benjamin Kang Lim
"The Trump administration faces a dilemma," said Chang Ching, a retired Taiwan naval captain and researcher at the Taipei-based Society for Strategic Studies."They want to send smart, calibrated signals to Beijing without causing an overreaction or misunderstanding." China's Ministry of National Defense, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Pentagon did not respond to questions from Reuters.
Satellite imagery of Chinese dockyards, reports in China's state-controlled media and assessments of U.S. and other foreign naval experts show the PLA navy is expanding as fast as shipyards can weld hulls together. This emerging blue water fleet was just a dream for the early commanders of the communist navy born in 1949, during the closing stages of the nation's civil war.
Globally, the U.S. Navy remains the dominant maritime force, the power that keeps the peace and maintains freedom of navigation on the high seas. Chinese military and political figures say that while their nation's fleet has more ships, America has more powerful ones, and overall supremacy at sea. Last spring, he watched a giant exercise in the South China Sea, where a flotilla of 48 warships assembled in formation. Half of these vessels had been commissioned since Xi took power, state-controlled media reported. The highlight was the launch of jet fighters from China's first aircraft carrier: the 60,000-tonne Liaoning, a refurbished Soviet-era flat top that has served as a test bed for carrier operations.
It is not spelled out exactly how these conflicts would arise. But officers from the U.S. and other foreign militaries say they have no doubt Beijing is referring to clashes over Taiwan or disputed territories in China's near seas. This strategy is driving a shift away from Beijing's traditional emphasis on land forces. It marks a historic transformation for an ancient continental power that for millenia feared armies encroaching overland from the north and west.
For now, many of China's warships are smaller vessels, including a big fleet of fast missile-attack craft. But Chinese shipyards are launching surface warships that are closing the gap in size, quality, and capability with the best of their foreign counterparts, according to interviews with veterans of the U.S., Taiwanese and Australian navies. China's big fleet of conventional and nuclear submarines is also improving rapidly, they say.
An example of China's determination to control its near waters came this month, when a French warship passed through the Taiwan Strait. After the April 6 transit of the frigate Vendemiaire, China informed Paris that France was no longer welcome to attend celebrations last week to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese communist navy, U.S. officials told Reuters.
"Without air and sea domination, Chinese naval vessels will just be targets in the event of conflict," said a retired PLA officer."For Southeast Asian neighbors, China's navy may be intimidating, but its prowess is limited to waters near the country's shores and too early to be a force to be reckoned with in the open sea."
In some vital naval technologies, China is struggling to catch up. Chinese shipyards still rely on foreign suppliers for some engines, weapons and sensors, according to global arms trade registers. High-profile arrests of suspected Chinese spies accused of stealing military secrets in the United States suggest China's navy has shortcomings in radars, underwater sensors and other electronic technologies.
Most of this firepower was unavailable to Beijing when President Bill Clinton deployed the two carrier battle groups off Taiwan in early 1996. China's obsolete navy, geared for coastal defense, was powerless to respond, and Beijing could only watch helplessly as the Taiwanese vote went ahead.
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