The Southern European economy has been at a political impasse since a general election in April.
At the time, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez won the vote, but without a majority and he has, since then, struggled to find support from other political groups to form a government. The Spanish King has started fresh consultations with the various parties, but without a breakthrough by Monday, Spain will automatically hold elections on November 10.
"Given the existing discord between parties, a new election is the most likely outcome at this stage," Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at Teneo, said in a note Monday.show that the Socialist Party of Prime Minister Sanchez would win an election with 31% of the vote – this is up from 28.7% in the April election. The conservative party Partido Popular would come second with 19% of support, followed by the populist Podemos with 14% and the liberal party Ciudadanos with 13%.
As a result, Pedro Sanchez would likely find himself at the negotiating table once again to get support for a new government, albeit with more parliamentary seats than he currently has. "In any case, government formation would remain far from straightforward after a new election. In fact, since the vote would take place on 10 November, it is unlikely that the country would have a new cabinet in place by the end of the year," Barroso from Teneo said in his note.
"While new elections would serve to prolong the uncertainty, leaving Spain without a fully-capable government for the better part of 2019, this is unlikely in and of itself to undermine the country's economic outlook," Santi from Eurasia said.this year and 1.9% in 2020, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development .
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