If current trends continue, Starlink satellites will have to make roughly a million maneuvers every six months by 2028.
Between December 1, 2022, and May 21, 2023, Starlink's broadband satellites were forced to change course more than 25,000 times. That's roughly double the previous six-month period from June to November 2022. Overall, SpaceX's satellites have had to perform these automated maneuvers 50,000 times.
The current trend is unlikely to change. According to Harvard astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell's, Elon Musk's space company currently has more than 4,000 Starlink satellites active in orbit. And that's only the beginning for Starlink; the company also has partial FCC approval for its second-generation Starlink constellation, consisting of up to 30,000 more satellites.
According to NASA, there are more than 27,000 pieces of space debris in orbit. As satellites make Earth's orbit more crowded, the chances of a collision occurring go up the more satellites are sent to orbit.
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