Recent events in Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand help explain why
everyone agrees that democracy is declining in the 11 countries of South-East Asia. But why? The region’s diversity makes generalisations hard. It is about the size of Latin America, with 690m people, and has a gallimaufry of political structures, ranging from the autocratic sultanate of Brunei to Leninist Vietnam and impressively democratic Timor-Leste.
Yet in his second term as president, from 2019, Jokowi has undermined Indonesian democracy. He has defanged the country’s anti-corruption commission and eroded civil rights with an illiberal new criminal code. He has brought individuals linked to the once-ruling army elite back into the heart of government. He backs as his successor Prabowo Subianto, a demagogue and former general. America formerly banned Mr Prabowo for alleged rights abuses.
A feature of all three countries is a personalised or dynastic approach to power. That is most obvious in Cambodia. But Jokowi, that former outsider, is also busily fostering a dynasty of his own. His son and son-in-law have dived into politics; Mr Prabowo backs them both. And a big motivation for Mr Thaksin’s deal with the army was to foster conditions for his family to thrive in politics. His 37-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn, heads his Pheu Thai party.
Accommodation is often claimed to be an Asian political virtue. But it mainly entails swelling patronage networks. As Sebastian Strangio writes in themagazine about Cambodia, such networks exist to milk resources. Expanded networks mean more corruption and cronyism—and let ordinary folk go hang.
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