U.S. employment likely increased at a brisk clip in May, with the jobless rate expected to have dropped to its pre-pandemic low of 3.5%, signs of a tight labor market that could keep the Federal Reserve's foot on the pedal to cool demand.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday, also expected to show strong wage gains last month, would paint a picture of an economy that continues to expand, although at a moderate pace.
Estimates ranged from as low as 250,000 jobs added to as high as 477,000. Job gains, however, would still be way above the monthly average that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic started in 2020. The anticipated decline in the unemployment rate from 3.6% in April would push it back to its lowest level since February 2020, then the lowest since December 1969. A rebound in the labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, is anticipated after it fell from a two-year high in April.
The U.S. central bank has increased its policy interest rate by 75 basis points since March. It is expected to hike the overnight rate by half a percentage point at each of its next meetings this month and in July. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said on Thursday she saw little case for pausing in September.
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