Meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research tend to be pretty staid affairs. But when members of the group gathered for a conference call at this time in 2016, the polling industry was experiencing a crisis of confidence.Donald Trump had swept most of the Midwest to win a majority
Meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research tend to be pretty staid affairs. But when members of the group gathered for a conference call at this time in 2016, the polling industry was experiencing a crisis of confidence.
“Polling is one of those things like military battles: You always re-fight the last war,” said Joshua D. Clinton, who co-directs the University of Vanderbilt’s poll and served on the AAPOR committee. The 2020 election “might have a different set of considerations,” he said, but pollsters have an obligation to learn from the last cycle’s mistakes.
But some state-level polls in 2016 did not weight by education levels, therefore giving short shrift to less educated voters, who tend to be harder to reach. And a University of New Hampshire poll put Clinton up by 16 points in that state on the eve of the election, though in the end she barely won it. That poll’s gap would have closed entirely if its analysts had weighted for education, according to the AAPOR report.
Franklin, who was a member of the AAPOR team, suggested how telephone interviewers might confront the issue with respondents next year: “When they indicate they’re undecided or maybe considering a third-party vote, maybe push people a little more on whether they could change their mind,” he said. Trafalgar used a generously inclusive model, with a particular eye toward less frequent voters whom Trump’s anti-establishment campaign had drawn in.
The polls from 2016 make clear that finding a representative sample is both the hardest and the most important part of conducting an effective survey. This is not new knowledge for public-opinion professionals, but many said it was a lesson worth relearning.Compounding all the other factors in 2016 was the simple fact that — in a race with two historically unpopular candidates — many voters didn’t reach a decision until just before Election Day.
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