For Americans, two countries have emerged as touchstones for dealing with the pandemic: Sweden, for conservatives, and Germany, for liberals. But would either approach work in the U.S.?
Americans like to think of their nation as exceptional. There’s even a term for it: American exceptionalism.
New daily infections had dropped under 1,000 for the first time in more than six weeks. R0 had fallen to 0.65, well below the threshold of 1.0 that divides a growing outbreak from a shrinking one. Fewer than 7,000 Germans had died — a far lower mortality rate than in most neighboring countries. As a result, shops reopened for business, with restaurants, hotels, classrooms and even pro soccer matches set to come next.
“Since people over 65 account for about 80% of Covid-19 deaths, Sweden asked only seniors to shelter in place rather than shutting down the rest of the country; and since Sweden had no pediatric deaths, it didn’t shut down elementary and middle schools. Sweden’s containment measures are less onerous than America’s, so it can keep them in place longer to prevent Covid-19 from recurring. Sweden did not shut down stores, restaurants and most businesses.
Conservatives are right when they say Sweden hasn’t closed schools, stores and restaurants. Even bars and nightclubs remain open, and Stockholm has not ordered Swedes to wear masks or socially distance. But that isn’t the whole story, either. The government has encouraged people to keep their distance, and people have almost universally compiled — a product of Swedes’ unusually high levels of trust in authority.
This loss of life is supposed to be part of a trade-off. Yes, vulnerable people die, the argument goes. But they might have died anyway. In return, Sweden maintains a higher level of economic activity, and as the virus spreads, people acquire immunity. The result: a quicker recovery and more resistance to future outbreaks. But those benefits might be a mirage.
The German approach presents a different challenge. There the death rate is strikingly low: just 91 people per million, compared to 408 per million in neighboring France and 508 per million in neighboring Italy. Yet over the weekend, the Robert Koch Institute — the German equivalent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — announced that R0 had nearly doubled in the three days since the relaxation of lockdown restrictions, surging from 0.65 to 1.1 .
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