The world needs to rapidly accelerate its transition away from coal and other fossil fuels to avoid extreme climate change, according to a report Monday by the U.N. climate science panel.
To keep warming in check, global consumption of coal, for example, must drop by at least 67% by 2030 and 95% by 2050, while oil and gas use must also decline sharply, according to the report. That would mean retiring and replacing fossil fuel power plants and other facilities potentially decades earlier than planned and cancelling new construction.
The pace of the decline in fossil fuel consumption could be somewhat slower if facilities install carbon capture equipment to keep their emissions from reaching the atmosphere, the report said, while also acknowledging that the technology is not yet proven to be commercially viable at scale. The rapid shift away from fossil fuels needed to limit warming poses a multi-trillion dollar risk to investors and resource-rich nations, because it could leave infrastructure idle and untapped resources in the ground.
"About 30% of oil, 50% of gas, and 80% of coal reserves will remain unburnable if warming is limited to 2 degrees C," the report said, adding that the loss of wealth from such "stranded assets" could create risks for financial markets. But there are economic opportunities as well, both for investors looking to profit from the growing solar, wind and other clean energy industries, and businesses keen to benefit from their falling costs and improved technology, it said.Despite decades of international climate negotiations, carbon emissions and fossil fuel energy demand have been rising steadily, with current emissions projections putting 1.5 degrees C well out of reach.
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