OPINION: “The only December period in which the stock market has above-average odds of rising begins after Christmas,” Mark Hulbert writes.
That hasn’t kept Wall Street from attributing every upward blip to Saint Nick over the past six weeks. I worry that his name has been taken in vain more times than You Know Who.
I base this conclusion on the average gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.55% starting the first trading session after Christmas and continuing through the second trading session of the New Year. In most years, that period encompasses six trading sessions. Furthermore, as you can see from the chart, there is impressive consistency to this post-Christmas rally. It doesn’t matter if stocks rise in December or since the start of any given year.
Why Santa Claus visits only after Christmas You nevertheless shouldn’t bet on a seasonal pattern such as the Santa Claus rally unless there are sound theoretical reasons for why it should exist. Mere statistical significance is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to justify making a trade.
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