Russia’s close ally Belarus could formally join the war in Ukraine in the coming days if Moscow concludes that Ukraine has “used force” against either Russia or Belarus.
It’s not clear how soon Russia could launch a new offensive in Ukraine. Russia’s resources have been strained in recent days due toin Ukraine. The status of the city was not immediately clear Friday after intense fighting—Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it had captured Soledar, while a spokesperson for Ukraine’s troops in the east of the country denied that Russia won the battle. Russian forces have tried and failed for months to take the nearby city of Bakhmut as well.
And although Russia’s logistics, command and control, and morale have been floundering in the last ten months of war, there are some indications that Moscow may be looking for a rejuvenated war plan. Earlier this week, the Kremlin promoted Gen. Valery Gerasimov to command Russia’s troops in Ukraine, replacing Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who had been leading the forces for three months. A return to Gerasimov, who previously led Russia’s forces in the war in its failed blitz to take over all of Ukraine in a matter of days, could indicate Moscow is looking to ramp up its assault on Ukraine in the new year.
The U.S. Department of Defense has assessed that Gerasimov’s promotion “likely” reflects “systemic challenges that the Russian military has faced… logistics problems, command and control... morale and the large failure to achieve the strategic objectives that they've set for themselves,” Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday.
Turning to Gerasimov could be a sign of desperation as well. British intelligence assesses that his promotion could underline “the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing.”
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