The question is whether Ukraine can exploit this disarray. If Russia expends shells and manpower in pyrrhic victories in Donetsk, that could pave the way for a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring or early summer
Since late January Russia’s army has been hurling troops and shellfire along wide swathes of the front lines in the east. To the north, in Luhansk province, Russia is attacking towards Kupiansk, a rail hub, and Lyman, a small city, both of which Ukraine liberated in the autumn. In the south, in Donetsk province, Russia is pressing Avdiivka and Vuhledar, which lie either side of Donetsk city. The focus of its efforts, unchanged since August, remainsRussia has little to show for this onslaught.
Nor does Russia have much in reserve. Though it has mobilised over 300,000 troops since September, half were sent straight to the front to replace casualties, running to 1,000 a day killed and wounded, reckons another Western official. The rest, says Michael Kofman of, an American think-tank, have probably been used to fill out under-strength battalions and build a reserve to rotate front-line units out of Ukraine. A much-rumoured new wave of mobilisation has not materialised.
Manpower is not the only problem. Western security officials say that, come spring, Russia’s rate of artillery fire will be 20% of the level it managed in late 2022—a serious handicap in what has been an artillery-dominated war. Russia’s defence industry, despite being on a war footing, is struggling to keep up, say officials. Military demand for main battle tanks outstrips production by a factor of ten.
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