Ross Douthat: 'The pro-life side lost every statewide ballot... and Republicans underperformed expectations. This has revived the summertime assumption that the Dobbs decision was a political disaster for the GOP.'
A demonstrator’s sign outside the Supreme Court building in Washington, as oral arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson were being heard, on Nov. 30, 2021. When abortion wasn’t directly on the ballot in the midterms, voters showed no inclination to punish politicians who backed abortion restrictions, Ross Douthat writes.It’s easy to say what a triumphant midterm election would have looked like for opponents of abortion.
You can strategize around these problems to some extent, contrasting incremental protections for the unborn with the left’s pro-choice absolutism. But when you’re the side seeking a change in settled arrangements, voters may still choose the absolutism they know over the uncertainty of where pro-life zeal might take them.
For a movement that’s clearly a moral minority, that’s an opportunity, not a death knell. Yes, blue and most purple states will remain pro-choice in almost any imaginable version of the 2020s, and some red states as well. But the fact that abortion is illegal with exceptions in 13 states, while heartbeat laws survived a key political test in Georgia and Ohio, is hardly an abstract or Pyrrhic victory.
But even national efforts need to be especially concerned with what happens inside the existing pro-life states.
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