On IntelMattersPod this week, host Michael Morell talks with University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape about his ongoing research on political violence in America and its implications as the midterms approach.
MICHAEL MORELL: Bob, welcome back to Intelligence Matters. It's great to have you again.MICHAEL MORELL: We want to get an update on your research on attitudes toward political violence in the United States, particularly as we approach the midterms. And quite frankly not far behind those will be the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Perfect time to get an update on what CPOST is doing in this realm.
Now, so far, our listeners here will have heard most of that before. A little bit of update with the new numbers. But what's really new since I've been on before is that we've had some data points in the real world which confirm what I'm saying. So I just said that a big risk factor is for this issue of the great replacement, motivating political violence is living in a county losing the most white population.
These are expensive panels and surveys to do, but we've been fortunate since I've been here, Michael, that the Pritzker Military Foundation and some others have come in to support this work at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago. And we are now able to do these every three months. So we are able to change. We can track change, and you'll hear some important information about that.
BOB PAPE: Oh, absolutely. So we have tracked the stated motives of those who have been arrested in our reports on our website. We've studied their remorse statements. So if people will go to our website, they'll see a variety of reports about what we know about the motives of those who broke into the Capitol on our CPOST website at the University of Chicago. And yes, this is right in line with what we're seeing. But those are, of course, more anecdotal.
What we did is we focus grouped people after they filled out our survey. So we already know where they come in on use of force for Trump, great replacement, and Qanon cults. And then what we did is we bundled them together in like minded groups. So they're not shouting at each other. They're in a situation where once they get a little comfortable in the group, they discover within about 5 minutes that they're with like minded people. So they just start talking.
BOB PAPE: One of the big things that we've been able to do with these more thicker, expanded, expanded surveys is that we've started to be able to now survey the possibility of violent sentiments on the left. Now, let me just take a moment and explain, though, why survey violence sentiments in the country? It's important to see that this kind of community support for violence is like understanding wildfires.
MICHAEL MORELL: I want to finish up here with some big picture questions. You've painted a picture of a highly combustible situation right on the right all by itself. And then you mix in the left and, it gets pretty scary here.
MICHAEL MORELL: What does a worst case scenario look like? I know you've made some analogies to both Northern Ireland in the late 1960s and to the Balkans in the 1980s. How bad could this get?
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