The party’s embrace of extreme positions and infatuation with Donald Trump are to blame
for the next two years. On this hinges the ability of the White House to staff its administration, to confirm judicial nominations and to pursue legislation.to try to predict what will happen. Our past forecasts—of France’s presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, America’s midterms of 2018 and its presidential election of 2020—all favoured the eventual victor months in advance.
Our 2022 midterm model has two main findings. First, though Republicans are favoured to win the House, it won’t be a blowout. We currently think the likeliest outcome is that they win 224 seats. Second, we think Democrats are favoured to hold on to the Senate. The likeliest outcome there is that they end up with 51 seats.
These predictions are surprising because 2022 ought to be a bumper year for Republicans. The party that holds the White House normally gets thwacked in the midterms—a pattern that stretches back 80 years. The only recent exceptions are the midterms after Republicans started impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton and those following September 11th, 2001. Furthermore, President Joe Biden is about as popular as an eggwhite omelette at a barbecue contest.
The first is that Republican states have pursued extreme positions on abortion that alarm many voters. A majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in the first trimester and restricted thereafter. Several Republican states have banned abortion entirely since the Supreme Court overturnedthis year. Previously, anti-abortion purists had little grip on public policy. Now, in some states, they control it.
Brasil Últimas Notícias, Brasil Manchetes
Similar News:Você também pode ler notícias semelhantes a esta que coletamos de outras fontes de notícias.
Donald Trump: Document seized in Mar-a-Lago raid detailed foreign government's nuclear capabilities - reportThe Washington Post reported the discovery but has not indicated if the foreign country is one which is friendly or hostile to the US.
Consulte Mais informação »
Hants get maximum batting points against NorthantsAneurin Donald hits 94 as Hampshire secure maximum batting points against Northamptonshire.
Consulte Mais informação »
Here's What to Watch in Massachusetts' Primary ElectionRepublicans hoping to hold on to the Massachusetts governor’s office are choosing between a Donald Trump-backed candidate and a more moderate businessman in Tuesday’s primary election. Massachusetts is just the latest blue state to feature a top-of-the-ticket contest between a conservative candidate endorsed by Trump and a more centrist opponent. In recent primaries in Maryland and Connecticut, GOP voters have…
Consulte Mais informação »
Trump-Backed Diehl Wins GOP Primary, Will Face Maura Healey in November ElectionGeoff Diehl, a former state representative endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has won the Republican nomination for Massachusetts governor over businessman Chris Doughty, who was considered the more moderate candidate in the race. The victory for Diehl sets up a general election contest against Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey, who would be the first openly gay person and the…
Consulte Mais informação »