MLB predictions, picks, and odds for Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks on October 30. MLB World Series Game 3 2023 free pick and best bets.
The Rangers have a thunderous offense and the D-backs have pestered pitchers all season. And yet, this has the makings of a pitcher's duel with Max Scherzer and Brandon Pfaadt on the hill. Add in some timely defense, and the total of 9 looks even loftier.
If Max is"right," there's massive value on the Under tonight. That's because Max being"right" is him being close to the pitcher Hedges described. I'll back him to shine here, and that's a testament to who he's been throughout his career. I have a projected number of 7.5, which makes the widely available total of 9 a wide edge and one that I have to take.
Usually, that would be an issue for Scherzer. However, that fails to capture what his slider has produced. It's been his putout pitch this year, and the DBacks will field a lineup with five players owning a whiff rate above the league average against it. I expect Max to lean on this pitch to navigate this lineup with minimal damage.
Take the Under tonight. History tells us we're due for a low-scoring affair, and the pitchers on the mound say the same.The first leg is Pfaadt to get five strikeouts. It goes back to the sweeper dominance, and this Rangers lineup struggles against it. Also, a substantial part is Pfaadt growing confident and easily going Over this number in back-to-back starts.
You also give the Rangers the pitching edge if Max is right. Pfaddt has been incredible this postseason, but Max Scherzer is still Max Scherzer. We're still not sure where he is in his progression, but if that last ALCS start got him closer, then watch out. I projected the Rangers as -110 favorites, and that's the consensus price, so I don't see much value in the current number. Because of that, a side is a pass here; however, that's the direction I'm leaning.
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