Primary debates move opinion polls much more then the presidential debates do
election-watchers the onslaught of on-the-ground reporting and analysis from 30,000 feet that acccompanies a campaign is pleasurable. But voter preferences tend to be more stable than front-page coverage, which typically consists of assorted gaffes and flip-flops, might suggest. Primary debates really do matter, though. The Democrats hold their first one in Miami next week. An increase in available polling over the decades has helpedquantify their impact.
To find out we analysed Mr Franklin’s polling data, which span all presidential primary elections from 1976 to 2016, using a technique called Bayesian change-point analysis to calculate a polling average that is not too sensitive to outlier polls, as some other approaches are. We assume it takes about two weeks from the date of a debate for any new information arising from that debate to be reflected in public opinion and for pollsters to gather their data.
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