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As someone who puts lots of emphasis on the underlying numbers when making assessments of teams, this fixture is troubling me. All the data is telling me to back Chelsea at Evens with Sky Bet but my eyes tell me otherwise. I'm torn.
Marco Silva's side have conceded 3.5 goals fewer than their expected goals faced this season - that's the highest in the Premier League. They are at it again. And then you have Chelsea, who the underlying numbers suggest they have been very unfortunate in making the club's worst-ever start after six games in a Premier League season based on expected goals both for and against, which ranks them sixth for expected goals for and third for expected goals against.
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