Pound Sterling spikes to new year-to-date highs after US Inflation data GBPUSD Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis
data for April on Wednesday. At the time of writing, it has risen to new year-to-date highs in the 1.2670s.
Apart from the headline YoY figure, the CPI release came out as expected: rising by a faster 0.4% rate MoM in April, and for Core CPI rising 0.4% MoM and 5.5% YoY. Given the overall trend is bullish, the exchange rate is likely to continue rallying. The May 2022 highs at 1.2665 provide the first resistance level, but once breached it opens the way to the 100-week Simple Moving Average situated at 1.2713, and finally at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-22 bear market, at 1.2758. All provide potential upside targets for the pair. Each level will need to be decisively breached to open the door to the next.
The Relative Strength Index is in the mid 60s at the time of writing after peaking in the upper 60s on May 5. This suggests a mild bearish divergence may be developing. If RSI remains below 68 at Wednesday’s close it will confirm a bearish divergence and indicate some underlying weakness. This alone, however, would not be enough evidence to conclude a reversal was in the making.The Pound Sterling is the oldest currency in the world and the official currency of the United Kingdom.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
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