Why the Bank of Canada might not hike as high as many fear — via financialpost BoC Interestrates Inflation Economy
The surprise strength of the U.S. core consumer price index last week roiled markets and pushed up expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate to hit almost 4.5 per cent by next April.
Among Canada’s major banks, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank now expect Canada’s interest rate to peak at 4 per cent, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has raised its forecast to 3.75 per cent. The Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal also predict a 3.75 per cent peak.Article content
First, a cloudy outlook for manufacturing. Though manufacturing sales increased 0.5 per cent in June and 0.6 per cent in July, these gains only partially offset a 2.1 per cent decline in May. “With the manufacturing PMI dropping sharply over the past couple of months, it appears that the global manufacturing malaise — caused by zero-covid lockdowns in China and soaring energy prices in Europe — will infect Canada too,” he said.Article content
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