China's economic growth is likely to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, before steadying in 2024, a Reuters poll showed, as policymakers pledge to step up support for the COVID-ravaged economy.
Gross domestic product likely grew just 2.8% in 2022 as lockdowns weighed on activity and confidence, according to the median forecasts of 49 economists polled by Reuters, slower than a 3.2% rise seen in October's forecast and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021.
"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note.Reuters Graphics On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to contract 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September, the poll showed.
Analysts expect the central bank to cut the benchmark lending rate - the one-year loan prime rate - by 5 basis points in the first quarter.unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, matching the forecasts of most market watchers who nevertheless expect further monetary easing to prop up the slowing economy.
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