Perspective: Smart NFL teams trade down at the draft. Most NFL teams aren’t smart.
By Sally Jenkins Sally Jenkins Sports columnist Email Bio Columnist April 25 at 1:10 PM At some point in every NFL draft, executives, scouts and coaches abandon quantifiable data and become irrationally human. Armed with the most sophisticated fact-gathering, they will go directly against science and economics because they stare upward with eternal hope at the first-rounder they believe will rip out of his suit like a superhero for them.
How often is a team right in picking a high-first-rounder? What will the quantifiable difference be between the top choice taken at a position in the 2019 draft in Nashville on Thursday, and the next available player, or even the third or fourth, in terms of games started and potential Pro Bowl success? You’d think it would be a lot, given all that teams invest. In fact, they prove right only a “sobering” 52 percent of the time, according to Massey.
“If you recognize the uncertainty, rather than throwing up your hands, you say, ‘We want as many draws as possible in the lottery,’ ” says Massey. “ ‘We can’t influence one ticket, but we can get as many tickets as possible.’ ”The Patriots aren’t the only team with the discipline to use a trade-down strategy. The Seattle Seahawks are good practitioners of amassing picks as well. But what’s surprising is how uncommon it is, given how much hard data exists on its wisdom.
Were the Chiefs right to give up so much? Mahomes is dazzling enough that he makes it all seem worthwhile. But the cost is steep. When a team packages too many picks to trade up for a single player, it hurts a team for years. “It has to turn out to be a home run, and even then, you’re still robbing your team of infrastructure,” Brandt says.
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