With Jakobi Meyers listed out for the Patriots, DeVante Parker will be Mac Jones' primary receiving threat on Monday Night Football in Arizona.
The Patriots have a tough defense to run against as they sit in the Top 10 in EPA/rush, success rate, and DVOA. They’ve been even better of late, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry over their last three games, which is the second-best mark in football over that stretch. All of this leads to a tough day on the ground for James Conner, whose 125 yards in Week 12 are inflated thanks to one of the worst rush defenses in the Chargers.
Back on Thanksgiving, this New England defense held Dalvin Cook to just 42 yards on 22 carries. New England also kept the Jets’ running backs to just 32 yards on 19 carries in Week 11 and gave up just 59 yards to Nick Chubb earlier in the season. Since Week 9, this defense ranks first in success rate vs. the run and second in EPA/rush.
Conner will certainly get the majority of the carries, but that’s priced in here. What might not be, is the Cardinals mixing in rookie RB Keaontay Ingram more coming out of the bye. They might even give Corey Clement more carries after the departure of Eno Benjamin.
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