As authoritarians advance, democrats in Latin America will once again have their work cut out in 2023
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskPolitical attention will focus on Argentina’s presidential election in October. With the Peronist government divided and out of ideas, and with inflation raging, the centre-right opposition should win, provided it stays united. First it will have to decide on a candidate. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the mayor of Buenos Aires, is capable and moderate.
There are elections, too, in Paraguay in April and in Guatemala in June. In Paraguay the conservative Colorado party, which has ruled for all but five of the past 70 years, faces a strong challenge from a broad but disparate opposition. The party has been hurt by sanctions imposed by the United States on two of their leading figures for corruption . Despite discontent, the likely Colorado candidate, Santiago Peña, a former finance minister, has a narrow edge.
In Mexico, meanwhile, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will hope to see his Morena party win a gubernatorial election in June in the important State of Mexico, a stronghold of the formerly ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party. Victory there would indicate that Morena would be well placed for the presidential election in 2024.
On paper, 2023 offers an opportunity for international talks on Venezuela, ruled as a dictatorship by Nicolás Maduro. The United States could offer relief from sanctions in return for Mr Maduro’s accepting a free and fair presidential election, due in 2024. But neither side has much room for manoeuvre. With China now looming large in Latin America, the European Union will hope to regain influence with a summit in late 2023, when Spain holds the union’s presidency.
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