Paid Program for CMEGroup: The unusual shape of the yield curve is sending mixed signals.
Published on June 10th, 2019The U.S. has had an extended and very impressive rally in the prices of U.S. Treasury securities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury has seen its yield move from a recent high over 3.2 percent in early October 2018, down to below 2.20 percent at the end of May 2019. One of the most important questions is whether the Treasury rally is signaling that a U.S. recession is imminent. While we see U.S.
We would go with the conclusion that the yield curve is signaling that U.S. and global economic growth is decelerating, but at this point forecasting an imminent U.S. recession seems a stretch. When the Q2 2019 U.S. real GDP data is published at the end of July, it will mark this expansion as tying the record for the longest on record. And the unemployment rate is still below 4 percent. The Fed may well be worried, but probably not worried enough to cut rates any time soon.U.S.
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