Consumers are down in the dumps --- and that stacks up as a positive signal for gold that shines brighter than many of the more often-cited inputs, a top...
Consumers are down in the dumps — and that stacks up as a positive signal for gold that shines brighter than many of the more often-cited factors for movements by the yellow metal, a top Wall Street technician said Thursday.
“We don’t find inflation, real‐rates, money supply or any of the theoretical inputs to be of much use for golds forward returns. We do, however, find consumer confidence to be a meaningful input, with high levels of confidence preceding weak forward returns and a dearth of confidence setting up bullish returns,” said Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, in a note.
Gold is up around 6% so far in 2022, more than holding its ground even as Treasury yields have surged and the dollar has rallied. Rising bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets like gold, while a firmer dollar is also seen as a headwind for commodities priced in the unit.
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