Our new prediction model for Germany’s wide-open election

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Our new prediction model for Germany’s wide-open election
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Angela Merkel is retiring after 16 years as Germany’s chancellor. Who is in the running to take her place? BTW21

IN AMERICA presidential campaigns start soon after the mid-term elections and last nearly two arduous years. In Germany, by contrast, for most of this year it was hard to tell that one of the most important elections in post-war history will take place on September 26th. It was only in the first week of August that posters sprouted on lamp posts across Berlin, featuring both the three high-profile contenders for the chancellorship and obscure local politicians running for parliament.

Meanwhile Olaf Scholz, the candidate of the Social Democratic Party , is gaining ground. Germans do not vote directly for their chancellor, but INSA Consulere, a pollster, found last week that when respondents were asked whom they would pick if they could, Mr Scholz got 27% of the votes. Annalena Baerbock , the Green Party’s candidate, drew just 13% and Mr Laschet 14%. Fully 36% said that they do not want to vote for any of the three.

Germany’s election system is unusual. Voters get two votes. The first is used to elect a local MP—roughly one for every 250,000 people. These votes are allocated using a first-past-the-post system and every winning candidate is guaranteed a seat. The second vote is for a party rather than a candidate. It is more important than the first because it determines the overall proportion of seats that each party holds in the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament.

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