Opinion: Why Iowa is so complicated
On Feb. 3, there will be about a dozen candidates, five considered in the “viable” category. High turnout is expected. The winner could easily win with less than 25 percent of the votes. That could come out to be about 50,000 people. Figuring out how to make sure50,000 voters get to the caucuses takes more than solid debate performances and catchy TV ads.
The organizational requirements and small number of voters make it difficult to figure out who has the best chance to win. Former vice president Joe Biden, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are bunched up in polling, but a two-point lead in the polls without on-the-ground enthusiasm and a solid organization does not mean much. Moreover, with so few votes at issue, a candidate such as Sen.
Also consider one more factor: Dec. 31 is the close of the fourth quarter for fundraising. We will soon learn how much money the candidates raised and spent in early states and, equally important, how much money they have left. If you’ve spent your last dime in Iowa and come in third, you may be in a worse position than if you came in a close fourth but are still flush with cash.
New Hampshire’s primary comes just eight days after Iowa’s. Then comes Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday. By then, voters may not recall who won the first contest. Iowa matters because caucuses can spell the end of some campaigns. But in a sense, what matters more is coming out of Iowa having met or exceeded expectations with money to spare.
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