Opinion: Trump could reboot his reelection bid on immigration. Don’t bet against him.
by the end of the year. That level of extended pain will justify Trump maintaining his ban well into 2021.Former vice president Joe Biden, Trump’s presumptive Democratic opponent in the fall, is now in a difficult position on immigration. Many Democrats will surely push him to oppose Trump’s order, but if he does, he will have to explain how he plans to protect American jobs in the face of record-high joblessness.
Trump’s order foreshadows a fall campaign that he will seek to make a referendum on American nationalism. Biden has always supported the multilateral, open global order that arguably helped spread the coronavirus. Trump has defined himself as a critic, if not a foe, of that order, and hence stands on strong ground as he will likely argue that the crisis validates his critiques.
Trump could win such a battle. Remember that Trump needs to win only the electoral college to be reelected. That means the battleground states of the upper Midwest become even more important in this scenario as they are dominated by the non-college-educated voters who are likely to strongly favor a pro-jobs agenda.
There’s obviously a lot of “ifs” in the foregoing analysis. But such a strategy could give Trump a chance to reboot a campaign whose previous intent to run on the strong economy now lies in ruins. Trump often lacks the rhetorical and managerial skills that typify great presidents. His political instincts though, however divisive they are, are among the best of any leader in the past two generations. His new proposed order would give him a chance to recast the fall race in his favor. Don’t bet against him.
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