Opinion | Evan Horowitz: 'The U.S. has imposed plenty of levies under this president, and spiraling consumer costs or major damage to the agriculture industry haven’t materialized.' - NBCNewsTHINK
since tariff threats become a global reality when Trump began expanding them last year. Which is not to say U.S. farmers have been unaffected, only that losses have been fairly contained. For instance, while agricultural exports to China fell a staggering 63.6 percent in 2018 — from $16 billion to $6 billion — total agricultural exports dropped just 4.5 percent as U.S. farmers significantly increased sales to Vietnam, Egypt, Argentina and the Netherlands.
Farmers' incomes in 2018 held up even better, with total cash income from crop sales dropping only 1.3 percent. Among soybean farmers, who rely heavily on exports to China and have been held up as the poster children for imperilled industries, sales revenue actually rose ever so slightly. Now you may be thinking: “A 1.3 percent drop in income and a 4.5 percent decline in exports doesn't sound like a very good outcome." And you'd be right. But the point is not to suggest that the trade war is somehow beneficial or immaterial, just that its costs have been widely exaggerated.
Consider this chart showing total income from agricultural crops going back to 2012. If you squint you can probably see last year’s dip, but you’ll also note that it doesn't compare to the losses in 2015 — when cash receipts fell 11 percent after a sudden downturn in global pricesSomehow, despite the damage, the 2015 collapse in farm prices didn't break through to the public consciousness.
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