Opinion by David Byler: Mormonism is shrinking. And it’s also becoming more friendly to Democrats.
That’s a big problem for the GOP. And worse, as Eastern Illinois University political scientist Ryan Burge notes, while older Mormons are reliably Republican, theirRepublicans might regain some ground with young Mormons when former president Donald Trump departs the political stage. Trump turned off many LDS voters with his uncouth personal style, constant feuds with Mormon Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah and attempts to restrict Muslim immigration.
But Trump’s exit — whether that comes in 2024, 2028 or later — might not heal all wounds. Burge calculated that Mormons younger than 40 were than their older peers. I found similar patterns on other foundational political questions, such as whether White Americans have advantages due to their skin color.None of this data signals doom for the Republican Party. Since Mormons make up a small portion of the country, Republicans could recoup lost LDS votes with converts from the other 98 percent of the population.
But a struggling — and increasingly bipartisan — LDS Church is a headache for the GOP. In every election, the Republicans have to invent new ways to keep up with the nation’s increasing racial diversity, growing suburbanization and decreasing religiosity. A changing Mormon Church adds one more problem to their plate.
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