Opinion: Trump is weaker than he’s been in years — yet still tops the 2024 field. He may be beatable, but the latest polls shows him squarely in the way of anyone wanting to take over the party he’s dominated for 7 years and counting, writes RichLowry.
.onald Trump has had a terrible couple of months — and still leads national polls for the Republican nomination handily.
There’s no doubt that Trump has taken on water, and is at his weakest since sometime in the first part of 2016. All that said, unless Trump’s support in surveys is a complete mirage, he continues to have a formidable grip on the GOP. There’s been a lot of buzz about DeSantis, understandably, who’s done all the right things to establish a national brand, win credibility with populists, and cultivate big donors. But there should be no mistake regarding Trump’s leadership of the party, he can set up like the Texans defending their canon at the Battle of Gonzales and defy his adversaries to “come and take it.
In the current developing field, he’s obviously the only former president and the only one with a track record of winning at the national level. He’s the creator of the movement that nearly everyone else wants to take over or, at the very least, accommodate. He’s the dominant force — the one whose standing in the race affects everything, and, importantly, the one everyone fears.
None of this is irrational. Why would Haley want to become the subject of Trump’s ire at a time when she’s the only other major politician in the race? Pence can wait to prosecute his case more directly if he launches a campaign. DeSantis is trying to push his own message, most recently on his book tour, and put more points on the board in the coming Florida legislative session — a mud fight with Trump now isn’t in his interest.
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