From WSJOpinion: Recession fears are overblown. The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor, and other economic indicators are strong, write AndyPuzder and Jon_Hartley
The yield curve is upside down, leading to worry about recession. Stocks declined last week after the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the two-year Treasury yield.
Yet while an inversion of the yield curve has preceded all postwar recessions, not all inversions signal imminent recession. The curve was flat for most of the 1990s, and even inverted briefly in 1998, without a recession. Today, given the economy’s underlying strength, fears of immediate recession are overblown.
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