If Republicans get a majority in the House, it will be too narrow for McCarthy to survive for long.
reinstating a rule that makes it easy to oust a speaker, requiring legislation be available for 72 hours before a vote, and allowing votes on amendments on all bills on the floor. In effect, these would both limit his ability to cut deals with Democrats and leave him keenly aware of the metaphorical sword dangling over his head.
Even without those exact concessions, the Freedom Caucus is making it very clear how tenuous a McCarthy speakership would be under the current state of play. The extortion efforts that would be required to gain the caucus’s support would, including keeping the federal government open and raising the debt ceiling. Any deal that would manage to both survive the Senate and avoid a presidential veto would necessarily require Democratic votes, making McCarthy’s grasp on power all the weaker.
There’s an air of Greek tragedy to this vision that awaits the man from Bakersfield, California, who has yearned to be speaker for most of his life. There is almost no scenario that ends with him holding onto the power that he’s spent the better part of a decade pursuing. Maybe someone else might be able to manage in this kind of no-win situation. But Kevin McCarthy simply was not built for this.
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