From WSJopinion: As the Taliban seizes power in Afghanistan, Iran is mounting a no less significant push. Behind both offensives is the perception that the regional order is failing and the U.S. is retreating, writes Jonathan Spyer.
Days after being hit by an Iranian drone strike, Zodiac Maritime’s tanker is moored off the Fujairah port in the United Arab Emirates, Aug. 3.The Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan, while swift and dramatic, is neither the first nor the sole challenge to the U.S. and its allies taking place in and around the region. Iran is mounting another, no less significant push. Behind both offensives is the perception that the regional order is failing and the U.S. is retreating.
Lebanese Hezbollah’s launch of 20 Katyusha missiles at Israel on Aug. 6 represents a sharp breach of the de facto rules that have largely held along the border since the end of the Second Lebanon War 15 years ago. The launch itself and the claim of responsibility by Hezbollah—Iran’s proxy—reflect an apparent willingness on the part of the Lebanese Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps franchise to provoke Israel.
Further south in Iraq, IRGC-supported Shiite militias are continuing to attack U.S. facilities. There are 2,500 U.S. service personnel in the country, stationed at Iraqi military positions such as the Al Asad air base. Twenty strikes have happened since April, including eight on U.S. facilities using Iranian-made drones.
We have a drone attack, Katyusha bombardment, killings of dissidents, strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq, and an offensive to consolidate control near the Syria-Israel-Jordan border. Why is all this happening now?