From WSJopinion: Neither the Saudis nor the Emiratis will take Biden’s calls. The U.S. needs to recommit to the region, writes FirasMaksad
Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcoming ceremony in Beijing, July 22.When the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates decline phone calls from the president of the United States, rebuff his requests to help lower oil prices, and shy away from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and when the U.A.E. hosts Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in Abu Dhabi, there is no doubt that a major crisis in U.S.
No, America’s Middle Eastern partners have rationally concluded that they need to diversify their foreign-policy options given Washington’s reluctance to uphold its defense commitments. Dramatic scenes of the disorderly U.S. exit from Afghanistan confirmed that America is in retreat. For Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. in particular, the lack of a meaningful American response to Iran-sponsored drone attacks on airports and oil facilities in 2019 and 2022 was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
To U.S. officials, these assumptions are complementary and mutually reinforcing: An American retreat from the Middle East should make Iran less aggressive. In turn, a U.S.-Iran detente would allow Washington more time to focus on emerging threats elsewhere. On the surface this appears to be a win-win arrangement, since Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Israel in theory stand to benefit from an Iranian commitment to de-escalation.
There is also no guarantee that an American-Iranian detente would lead to a more stable Middle East. Once most Western sanctions are lifted, and American deterrence across the region wanes, Iran’s appetite for expansionism will likely increase. This could feed further conflict, stiffen Saudi determination to match Iran by also becoming a threshold nuclear state, and suck the U.S. into future military entanglements.
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