OPEC ministers meet Monday, but this weekend's G-20 summit could have much more impact on oil prices, depending on whether the outcome is good or bad for the global economy.
OPEC meets next week, but it is the G-20 meeting between President Trump and President Xi that could have more impact on prices if they reach an agreement that helps the global economy - and oil demand.
"The meeting that really counts is the meeting at the G-20," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. "The question is why is demand growth weaker this year than previous years... we show demand this year growing at 1.1 million barrels a day. We see U.S.[production] growth up by 1.5 million barrels a day."
"In the broader context of what can make oil move, I think OPEC is pretty proforma. We think they'll roll this deal over," said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC. "There are war drum beating in the background, and there is no offramp for this." "That's where we'll get an early read as to whether the 'plus' part of the equation stays in the equation," said Jan Stuart, global energy economist with Cornerstone Macro. "I think that's a big deal, so the G-20 is important."
The increase in U.S. output and market share could become a thorny issue for Russia and OPEC, as they rein in production. "What's happening to demand is really on the minds of both Russia and Saudi Arabia. And the Russians for their part are concerned about making more room for the continual growth in market share of U.S. oil," said Yergin.
Morse said Russia's exports could even be more limited because of problems at a Black Sea port facility, expected to be closed until next month after contaminated crude was also found there.
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