The pandemic is taking a bad turn right now. dwallacewells writes on how the Omicron variant has all the makings of a massive wave
Photo: Microbiology HKU/BSIP/Universal Images Group via Getty Images For all their limitations, the models right now are flashing bright red. Over the course of the pandemic, again and again, projections based on simplistic extrapolations of current trends have missed the mark when the trajectories turned.
And since American vaccination rates are considerably lower than those in the U.K., with booster uptake lower as well, extrapolating the same model to the American population yields an even bleaker set of projections. Even before Omicron, half as many Americans were already dying of COVID-19 as did during our peak winter surge; in fact, that many Americans have been dying every day for three months now.
How will the U.S. respond to such rapid case growth? Just a few days ago, I was skeptical we would do much at all, but over the last few days the policy landscape appears to have changed. Norway is in “partial lockdown”; in France, officials are closing schools. In South Africa and the U.K.
Imagine, for example, that the entire world caught a cold at the same time. There would be a rise in deaths among older, vulnerable people — such as those in nursing homes — and the mass absences from work would have major societal consequences. Even if only a small percentage of people get ill or die, a small percentage of a very large number would still be a large number. And in many nations, including the U.S.
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