A Telegraph front-page splash claimed that strikes by junior doctors were “among the reasons” for a rise in excess deaths in England last month. We do not know this for sure. And Wales saw a similar rise without strikes.
Current data can’t tell us for certain whether recent junior doctors’ strikes had any impact on deaths, and it is misleading to suggest otherwise.What did the Telegraph say?from the Office for National Statistics .
This comparison does show, as the article claimed, that the number of deaths in the period including the strikes was about 11% higher than expected, whereas the number in the two weeks beforehand was about 4% higher than expected. The Telegraph includes a comment from an expert acknowledging that strikes could have contributed to the rise in deaths. The article also includes the expert opinion: “Other factors could contribute to excess deaths, such as flu cases, hospitalisations and cold weather.”
The Telegraph itself also quotes an expert who says: “In a period of such consistently high excess death and incredible strain on the system, attributing direct responsibility is impossible.”
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