High on hopes of never-ending central bank stimulus and desperate for clarity on...
- High on hopes of never-ending central bank stimulus and desperate for clarity on the size and timing of their next fix, financial markets look like they are being walked back from the more aggressive bets by officials wary of excessive exuberance.
Some of the pullback is of course due to ebbing political risk in places such as Britain, Italy and Hong Kong, alongside hopes the United States and China will be able to resolve their trade spat at talks scheduled for next month. Sweden’s Riksbank stuck to flagging rate hikes, while the Bank of Canada made no mention of policy easing plans, sending October rate cut bets to about 50% from nearly 70%As for the Fed, expectations of a half-point cut in September have receded to zero, while traders now price some 55 basis points of cuts by year-end versus 70 bps a month ago.
“Central banks are saying ‘look we are aware of the balance of risks but you may have got a bit ahead of yourselves’,” said Stewart Robertson, senior economist at Aviva Investors.
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