Boris Johnson’s chances in Britain’s next general election have been boosted. The prospects of Scottish independence have not
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, declared that a new independence referendum would take place on October 19th 2023. Boris Johnson’s chances in the next general election have been boosted. TheIn September 2014 Scots voted against independence in a ballot sanctioned by the British government. Since then Ms Sturgeon, who leads the Scottish National Party
This is not a breakthrough for the nationalist cause but a recognition that the British constitution is stacked against it, and that no referendum is likely soon. It is also a sign of Ms Sturgeon’s internal weakness. Thehas for years told nationalist voters that its electoral success will force the British government to grant a referendum.
Nor does the gambit place meaningful pressure on Mr Johnson. Independence is not wanted by the Conservative Party’s voters, members,s or donors. Supporters of an independent Scotland are irrelevant to the Tories’ electoral coalition. Mr Johnson can legitimately argue his opposition to a referendum is constitutionally sound; the law grants him the right to decide.
Indeed, the threat of Scottish independence is an asset. Mr Johnson doesn’t have much to campaign on in the next election: inflation is high and public services are straining. But since the first referendum in 2014 the Conservative Party has done well on both sides of the border by declaring that only it will defend the union, and that a vote for Labour risks a coalition with the, a second referendum and the end of Britain. Ms Sturgeon has given this argument fresh resonance.
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