Seth Walder gives his intel on some last-minute bets to place before Sunday's NFL Week 8 games.
If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.
The Giants are a blitz-heavy man coverage defense under Wink Martindale, and I think that suits Wilson based on some stark splits. Wilson has recorded a 59 QBR vs. man and 18 vs. zone and a 60 QBR vs. the blitz and 30 vs. non-blitz this season. I sometimes think splits like that can be just noise, but the man/zone splits extend back to last season, too.
Hunter leads the league in sacks with 9.0, but his pass rush win rate is just mediocre and he's going against a Packers offensive line that ranks second in pass block win rate. And don't sleep on this line being 0.75 instead of 0.25 -- that can make the difference. I make the fair price on the under -122, and you're getting basically that in plus money.
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