Earth's land masses have a higher chance of becoming wetter than drier as temperatures rise. In a new study, researchers found that co-occurring precipitation and heat extremes will become more frequent, severe and widespread under climate change, more so than dry and hot conditions.
The team used a series of climate models to project compound climate extremes by the end of the century if carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise.
They found that while some regions of the world will become drier as temperatures rise—such as South Africa, the Amazon and parts of Europe—many regions, including the eastern United States, eastern and southern Asia, Australia and central Africa will receive more precipitation. Wet-hot extremes will also cover a larger area and be more severe than dry-hot extremes.
In the future, wet-hot extremes will become more likely because the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by 6% to 7% for every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature. As Earth gets hotter, the warmer atmosphere will hold more water vapor, meaning more water will be available to fall as precipitation.
The regions likely to be hit hard by wet-hot extremes host many heavily populated areas that are already prone to geologic hazards, such as landslides and mudflows, and produce many of the world's crops. An increase in severe rainfall and heat waves could cause more landslides that threaten local infrastructure, while floods andMany parts of the world are already experiencing wet-hot extremes. In western Europe, climatic conditions led to deadly flooding in 2021.
"If we overlook the risk of compound wet-hot extremes and fail to take sufficient early warning, the impacts on water-food-energy security would be unimaginable," Wu said.Haijiang Wu et al, Increasing Risks of Future Compound Climate Extremes With Warming Over Global Land Masses,
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