New insights into the driving factors of COVID-19 dynamics in England England Coronavirus Disease COVID Epidemiology medrxivpreprint imperialcollege RBandH Cambridge_Uni LSHTM NIHRresearch
SARS-CoV-2 infections have led to unprecedented morbidity and mortality across the globe, and the continual emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has made COVID-19 mitigation challenging. Epidemiological analyses have been performed to assess SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern transmissibility and the severity of infections caused by them. However, integrated analyses quantifying the effectiveness of various interventions and directly comparing VOC severity and transmissibility are limited.
Data analyzed included polymerase chain reaction reports, population-level COVID-19 prevalence survey data, genomic characterization of PCR-positive COVID-19 cases, seroprevalence data from blood donors’ residual serum samples, hospitalizations, and deaths at the individual level and community level. The relative and absolute transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 wild-type strains and VOC, such as the Alpha VOC, Delta VOC, and Omicron VOC’s BA.1 sub-VOC were estimated.
Results Before COVID-19 vaccinations, Rtff was marginally lesser than Rt, indicating low prior infection-induced immune protection, and only stringent levels of NPIs were effective in curtailing SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Transmissibility increased with every successive VOC, and BA.1 had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.1. In contrast to previous studies, Alpha VOC had the greatest basic IFR , followed by Delta , wild-type , and Omicron . The basic IHRs for the wild-type strain, Alpha VOC, Delta VOC, and Omicron VOC, were 2.20%, 3.50%, 4.40%, and 3.50%, respectively. The HFRs for the corresponding strains were 33%, 48%, 30%, and 11%, respectively.
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