A new NBCNews poll finds the midterm ‘persuadables’ are most heavily based in Outer Suburb counties. These voters could decide the midterms.
In every election, there are solid Democratic voters and solid Republican voters — and then there are the voters who are less sure of where they stand. Those persuadable voters are often the difference between winning and losing and the NBC News poll shows they are a distinct group that tends to be concentrated in distinct areas.
And that Outer Suburb base for persuadable voters is not new. Going back to 2010, those Outer Ring suburb counties have held 42% or 43% of the persuadable vote. In short, the cities belong to the Democrats and rural America belongs to the Republicans, but the space between is where you are most likely to find voters who are weighing their alternatives.
And there is a long list of races the Cook Report considers to be toss-ups that share some of the same kind of suburban/exurban geography. In Colorado, the 8th district stretches north from the Denver suburbs up toward Fort Collins. In Michigan, the 7th district runs out from the western suburbs of Detroit up into and around greater Lansing, the state capital. Minnesota’s 2nd district comes out of suburban St. Paul and stretches down to the state’s southern border.
For the Democrats, there are positives around how these voters feel about former President Donald Trump and abortion. But there are other numbers in the poll that suggest a Republican edge in the Outer Suburbs when one looks at the generic ballot and at how voters in these counties feel about President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy.
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