.IChotiner speaks with Nate_Cohn, the chief political analyst at the New York Times, about why the Democrats had such a good night on Tuesday, how concerns about abortion rights and democracy played with the electorate, and the future of polling.
. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why the Democrats had such a good night, how concerns about abortion rights andplayed with the electorate, how to understand Republican struggles in the Midwest, different ways to think about the Georgia runoff, and the future of polling.
For the most part, the Democrats won an outsized share of independent voters and probably benefitted from a much healthier turnout than they did in the other states. I’m able to say that they probably benefitted from support among independent voters because, in many of the states where we have absentee-ballot data, we know what the composition of the early vote looks like and how people voted. In many of those states, the Democrats are running way ahead of their party registration numbers.
I agree with you that the Democratic messaging on democracy at a national level fell really flat. But in the cases where voters were confronted by, let’s just say, the reality of elements of that message, they responded. Democrats totally failed to make other races about democracy, though.[Florida Governor Ron] DeSantis. I’m sure that there are liberal pundits out there who think DeSantis is a proto-fascist. And I’m not going to weigh in on whether that’s true or not.
I’d say something similar in Kansas. Abortion wasn’t on the ballot this time, but it was in August. And the Democrats fared extremely well there, too. I’m not absolutely certain that’s causal. It’s harder to identify where abortion stands out as an issue compared to democracy. Democracy is clearly something concentrated in battleground states in which “Stop the Steal” candidates would have had the power to subvert national elections. And abortion is something that plays out more generally.
That’s a good question. In general, I’m reluctant to read too much into midterm results, or to use midterm results as a window onto longer-term electoral trends. If we were doing this exercise in 2018, for instance, I would’ve told you that the Democrats had a great night in Iowa, where they won three House races and won the House popular vote. And then we learned, two years later, that Donald Trump would easily carry Iowa just as he did in 2016.
You are also right that in many cases where the results seemed very good for Democrats, I was reluctant to take them seriously. That’s in part because of the poll results that we had in 2020, but it was also because I think of this uneven national pattern that we’re talking about. There were some places in the country where Democrats were excelling, and Republicans led in the national polls.
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